RAINEX Weather Discussion

Review of Yesterday's Forecast:

DAY 1 Update:

The only area of interest for RAINEX is the wave in the Western
Caribbean (Atlantic Invest Area # 99).

This tropical wave has changed little from yesterday. 
Convection has flared up at times, but based upon visible
satellite imagery and QuikScat there does not appear to be any
evidence of a surface circulation.  The wave is in a much
improved environment this morning compared to days prior.  Shear
values are favorable and the oceanic conditions remain very
favorable.  However, despite the improved conditions,
development has not yet occurred.

Invest area 99 is tracking to the WNW near 9 kts, this general
motion is expected through tomorrow, keeping the wave east of
land (Yucatan pennisula).  The BAM models are in agreement and
close to the extraploated motion for the 12-48 hour time period.
Image5.  The intensity guidance is limited and the same old
story, SHIPS intensifies the system, while GFDL dissipates it. 
However, keep in mind SHIPS treats this wave like a depression
initially. The MM5-gfs, nogaps and gfdl all keep this system an
open wave through Friday, while the MM5-cmc develops it into a
Charley sized weak tropical storm.

So for the RAINEX mission purposes, the storm will be over water
nearly all day tomorrow, so tracking over land should not be an
issue.	The only issue is development.	In yesterday's
discussion, I pointed out two scenarios and commented that
scenario 1, keeping the wave an open weak system through Fri was
more likely.  My and Derek's feelings are similar today with
even more confidence.

The recon mission this morning was cancelled, a new Air Force
recon mission is  scheduled this afternoon.  If the Air Force
recon does not find a surface circulation, it seems very unlikey
that this will develop before approaching land.

DAY 2 Forecast:

Longterm Outlook: